In 2023, the energy storage lithium battery industry ushered in great changes in technology, price, industrial pattern and other fields.
The 2023 China energy storage lithium battery industry Development Blue Book produced by Gaogong Research was released at the recently held 2023 Gaogong Energy storage annual meeting.
In this blue book, GGII statistics, the first three quarters of 2023 China storage lithium battery cumulative shipments of about 127GWh, a year-on-year growth rate of nearly 50%, but the third quarter shipments fell by about 23%, revised and reduced the annual shipments expected to 180GWh, compared with the expected target of 230GWh at the beginning of the year, down about 22%.
Due to the expected market demand and the increase of new entrants in the industry, the price competition of energy storage products is fierce. Since the beginning of the second half of the year, there have been systems and batteries winning bids or trading prices below the cost line, and the industry volume has reached a peak. The most powerful example is that the battery price fell from 0.5 yuan /Wh to 0.4 yuan /Wh in just half a month.
According to GGII statistics, from the subdivided application of lithium energy storage batteries, the growth rate of electric energy storage/communication energy storage has slowed down, and the demand for household/portable energy storage is weak. For industrial and commercial energy storage circuit, it is expected that 2023 China's industrial and commercial energy storage shipments will increase by more than 200%.
From the perspective of competition pattern, 2023Q1-Q3 battery enterprise concentration has been further improved. In terms of specific shipments, the market share of CATL has declined, while Haichen energy storage, BYD, Billion Wei Lithium Energy, Guoxuan High-tech, Penghui Energy and other overseas businesses have been driven by the rise in market share.
According to GGII statistics, from January to November 2023, the cumulative signed orders of domestic battery enterprises and overseas customers have exceeded 150GWh. The global energy storage cell "made in China" trend is becoming more and more obvious. Especially in 2023, when the internal volume is serious, the global penetration rate of energy storage cells is accelerating. Li Bingwen, director of energy storage business of Trina Solar's strategic management and Investment Department, also said that China's global position of energy storage cells is becoming more and more stable.
A phenomenon worth noting is the acceleration of battery enterprises into the field of integration. For example, BYD, Haichen energy storage, Rupu Lanjun, Penghui Energy, CATL, Nandu Power Supply and other bid-winning scale in the forefront of the industry, and accelerate the formation of a competitive situation with system integrators.
In the "5MWh+" energy storage system released by Gaogong energy storage statistics, there are a number of battery enterprises such as CATL, Haichen energy storage, Zhongchuang Xinhang, Xinwang Da.
After specific analysis, it is not difficult to find that the 2023 energy storage lithium battery track has the following characteristics.
1. Application scenarios and subdivision scenarios continue to expand, and the certainty of the track is becoming stronger and stronger. Balcony energy storage, industrial and commercial subdivision energy storage applications are constantly being excavated. The global mainstream energy storage market continues to expand.
In the overseas market, the reform of the power market in mainstream markets such as China, the United States and Europe continues to accelerate, and the main position of energy storage is more clear; The emerging markets of South America, Southeast Asia, South Africa and other markets continue to release energy storage demand, and the demand for energy storage lithium batteries is becoming more and more vigorous.
From the perspective of the domestic market, the spot market and the national unified power market have accelerated the construction, independent energy storage favorable policies have been introduced, grid-connected scheduling policies are expected to solve the problem of low energy storage utilization, and the market mechanism continues to improve, and the road to the market of energy storage is accelerating.
2, the cost of rapid decline, China's energy storage lithium battery technology iteration has entered the "outbreak period". Chinese companies' advantages in global products and supply chains have accelerated. Under the traction of cost reduction, global penetration and other goals, energy storage lithium batteries further determine the direction of large-capacity battery research and development, and the iteration speed continues to accelerate.
According to incomplete statistics, there have been more than 20 battery factories to 300Ah+ in 2023. In addition, more and more battery manufacturers predict that the future energy storage lithium battery capacity will be higher, can cope with long-term energy storage needs. Recently, the MIC 1130Ah released by Haichen Energy storage, as well as the "MR.BIG" of Yiwei Energy storage are sword long-term energy storage needs.
In the face of wider market demand, in the future, more diverse energy storage lithium battery products will be spawned. Large cylindrical batteries will further accelerate the penetration into the field of energy storage, such as industrial and commercial energy storage, household energy storage, and portable energy storage segmentation scenarios that have been used in batches.
3, product homogenization, safety concerns will still be prominent in the short term, third-line enterprises will be accelerated to be eliminated and cleared. In the face of rapid changes and a large number of players on the energy storage circuit, in addition to some enterprises with innovative capabilities, product homogenization may be an unavoidable phenomenon for a long time.
With the arrival of the cyclical elimination tide of the industry, there will be a number of enterprises in the low price, there will be operating problems in the internal volume, and the third-line enterprises will face the risk of being cleared and eliminated. The GGII expects the first wave of elimination to be coming. In fact, executives including Chen Xiang, president of Yiwei Energy Storage, also said that the industry reshuffle is underway.
Under the background of product homogeneity, low-price competition, and accelerating technology, the safety concerns of lithium energy storage batteries will remain an important problem for the industry. Relevant industry standards and safety standards have also become the focus of industry people, including Dr. Wu Kai, chief scientist of CATL.
